Probabilistic Assessment of Power Systems Resilience Under Natural Disasters

Abstract

Extreme weather can have a substantial influence on a power system's operational resilience since they are high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events. Therefore, Power systems must be resilient to HILP incidents in addition to being reliable against widely spread and credible threats. Despite the rarity of such events, the severity of their potential impact necessitates the development of appropriate resilience assessment tools to capture their implications and enhance the resilience of energy infrastructure systems. In this paper, a probabilistic strategy is proposed to assess and evaluate the operational resilience of power distribution networks against the impacts of HILP events depending on value-at-risk and conditionally value-at-risk quantitative risk-based assessments. With several scenarios built on sequentially Monte Carlo simulations, the consequence of a windstorm on a distribution network can be assessed using a probability-based resilience assessment methodology. The presented method is examined on an IEEE 37-bus system. Different case studies based on detailed data are presented and analyzed to demonstrate the proposed method's usefulness.