Probabilistic Assessment and Mapping of Liquefaction Hazard: From Site-Specific Analysis to Regional Mapping

Abstract

Probabilistic methods have been increasingly used in liquefaction hazard assessments for purposes of considering the substantial uncertainties in both the liquefaction case histories and the model development process, and for the risk assessment and performance-based earthquake engineering. In this paper, a review on the probabilistic methods of site-specific liquefaction assessment, including logistic regression, the Bayesian method and various performance-based methods, is first undertaken. Another important topic in the liquefaction hazard assessment is to understand its spatial extent, leading to mapping of liquefaction hazard over a region. The regional liquefaction hazard maps are being employed as planning tools and provide guidance to assess the need for site-specific evaluations. The second focus of this paper details a review of methods for regional liquefaction hazard mapping, including geology-based, geotechnical data-driven and geostatistical methods as well as multiscale methods. The review of the site-specific probabilistic methods and regional mapping methods involves a discussion of their formulations, key assumptions, advantages and applications in liquefaction assessment. The challenges and the need for further research in these areas are also mentioned.