Probabilistic approach to near acceptance of expert decisions on examinations of difficult objects

Abstract

The aim of the article is to ground the probabilistic approach to the acceptance of expert decisions on examinations of difficult objects with the use of the information technologies conducted on the basis of the used methodologies of realization of examinations. Criminalistics identification researches of difficult objects are conducted by comparison of the identification signs got from debatable (investigated) and exemplary (experimental) identifying objects. For comparison at first it is necessary to measure them, and already after it to compare inter se, i.e. to find the measure of closeness between the compared identification signs. And here are two aspects of estimation of authenticity of results of comparison. First from them belongs to determination of probability of complete coincidence of parameters of identification signs of two different objects. In other words, it is the aspect of proof of strict individuality of descriptions of the investigated objects, confessed in the whole world and allowing to use the categorical form of formulation of conclusion of expert. The calculation of probability of coincidence of fingerprint cards of two different personalities belongs exactly to this aspect. The second aspect is related to probabilistic character of processes of both origin of identification signs in difficult objects and their selection, measuring and comparison during realization of criminalistics researches. Exactly he is related to the probabilistic going near the estimation of results of criminalistics researches of difficult objects. It is shown that the result of any examination of difficult object, related to measuring of concrete sizes, is characterized by the presence of random constituent and its result must be presented in a probabilistic form. There are three separate random values determined by probability, characterizing examination and tool intended for identification researches of difficult objects At creation of tool for realization of examinations of difficult objects and its introduction into practice, the curves of values of probability errors of І and ІІ family must be made and its minimum efficiency must be determined. Exactl efficiency of tool must serve as a criterion for its suitability for realization of expert researches.