Probabilistic Approach to Modelling, Identification and Prediction of Environmental Pollution

Abstract

The probabilistic general model of environmental pollution process based on the semi-Markov one is developed and presented in the paper. The semi-Markov chain model approach is based on using prior information to predict the characteristic of some systems. Now, the semi-Markov process is used for the environmental pollution assessment. The methods and procedures to estimate the environmental pollution process’s basic parameters such as the vector of initial probabilities and the matrix of probabilities of transition between the process’s states as well as the methods and procedures to identify the process conditional sojourn times’ distributions at the particular environmental pollution states and their mean values are proposed and defined. Next, the formulae to predict the main characteristics of the environmental pollution process such as the limit values of transient probabilities and mean total sojourn times in the particular states in the fixed time interval are given. Finally, the application of the presented model and methods for modelling, identification and prediction of the air environmental pollution process generated by sulphur dioxide within the exemplary industrial agglomeration is proposed.