Probabilistic Approach for Q-based Ground Support Design

Abstract

For tunnel, cavern, and shaft design, the inherent variability in a given rock mass domain makes accurately estimating rock mass quality and support requirements difficult. To capture the variability in rock mass properties when using the Q system, a methodology incorporating a statistical analysis of measured Q input parameters and Monte Carlo Simulation was developed to perform a probabilistic ground support design approach. Probability and cumulative density function curves were then developed using the mathematical program MATLAB to guide in estimating ground support based on all potential rock mass conditions. To illustrate the proposed approach, two hypothetical tunnels were designed based on real data from two previous projects. Finite Element Modelling was used to evaluate the suggested Q rock support performance in a range of rock conditions for one of the hypothetical excavations to validate the proposed approach. This method demonstrated that associating a range of potential ground conditions instead of a single deterministic value for each input parameter can provide a quantifiable measurement of uncertainty within a given rock mass domain. Additionally, the approach provides insight into the design criteria for ground support in underground excavations to potentially reduce overly conservative and costly recommendations.