Probabilistic and Statistical Approach to Evaluating the Effectiveness of Management Decisions

Abstract

In a number of works by domestic and foreign authors, modern methods are proposed to solve the problem of the effectiveness of decision-making and execution. Quite satisfactory results have been achieved both in theoretical, methodological and applied terms. However, this only casually mentions the effect that occurs in any, and not only an unrealized solution — the appearance of some remnants; not unrealization, but fundamental unrealizability without a remainder. The very nature of unrealizability or the presence of residual has not been considered before, although the effect of residual is constantly observed. The discrepancy between the solution and its implementation was associated with the insufficient quality of the solution or with the shortcomings of its implementation, which is considered in the context of “incomplete information” and “the presence of hidden variables/factors”. This understanding allowed the remnants themselves to be considered in several angles and aspects: a) as a residue from the implementation (“unrealized opportunities”), b) as an over-realization of realized opportunities, c) as errors in the development of solutions, d) as technical, organizational, etc. disadvantages in the implementation of the solution, etc. However, the immediate consideration of the problem of evaluating the effectiveness of decision-making indicates the presence of a fundamental unrealizability in it, which is expressed in the appearance of a remainder when it is implemented in any case. Moreover, this remainder is not associated with realizability as such and not with the solution as such, but with the presence of a special property of residuality, which is of a fundamental nature. The purpose is to identify, describe and propose a method for assessing the phenomenon associated with the incompleteness of the implementation of a management decision, regardless of its quality. A set of logical and descriptive methods was used in the study. Results: a review of situations with the appearance of residues in decisionmaking is carried out; a criterion and a method for evaluating the effectiveness of decisionmaking is proposed, a rule for the residual implementation of a decision is formulated; a justification of the proposed rule in various aspects is given; a classification of options for the unrealizability of decisions is proposed. The results obtained can be useful in making and implementing a decision.