Probabilistic analysis of the inadvertent reentry of the Cassini spacecraft's radioisotope thermoelectric generators.

Abstract

As part of the launch approval process, the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel provides an independent safety assessment of space missions--such as the Cassini mission--that carry a significant amount of nuclear materials. This survey article describes potential accident scenarios that might lead to release of fuel from an accidental reentry during an Earth swingby maneuver, the probabilities of such scenarios, and their consequences. To illustrate the nature of calculations used in this area, examples are presented of probabilistic models to obtain both the probability of scenario events and the resultant source terms of such scenarios. Because of large extrapolations from the current knowledge base, the analysis emphasizes treatment of uncertainties.