Abstract
Abstract Groundwater is an essential water resource in the Yarkant River Basin Irrigation District, which is the largest oasis in Xinjiang, China. This study used a novel approach to analyze the relationship between groundwater depth and three driving factors by developing Copula Functions from monthly time series data collected from 16 monitoring wells. More specifically, marginal distribution and joint distribution functions were established, and the conditional probabilities for three data ranges were calculated using both two- and three-dimensional Copula Functions. The developed statistical models showed that groundwater exploitation, runoff, and surface water irrigation significantly affected groundwater depth. The most significant effect on water table declines was associated with groundwater exploitation and lagged 1-month behind the groundwater withdrawals. The amount of runoff and irrigation were both inversely related to water table depth due to groundwater recharge. Frank Copula Functions were found to produce the best fit to the joint distribution of the variables and were used herein, allowing for the establishment of a detailed probability distribution of the change in groundwater depth under the combined effect of multiple controlling factors. The results provided key insights into how irrigation and groundwater withdrawals can be adjusted to effectively manage groundwater resources.
Highlights
The Yarkant River is the longest tributary to the Xinjiang Tarim River, which is the largest inland river in China (Chen et al )
Groundwater exploitation, surface water irrigation, and runoff were chosen as the driving factors to analyze the change in groundwater depth (GD) within the Bachu Irrigation District of Yarkant River Basin
The paper compared the results of 2D Copula Functions with 3D Copula Functions, the latter of which jointly analyzed the responsiveness of groundwater depth to changes in multiple controlling factors
Summary
The Yarkant River is the longest tributary to the Xinjiang Tarim River, which is the largest inland river in China (Chen et al ). The Yarkant River Basin is subject to low and irregular rainfall, high temperatures and evaporation, as well as notable periods of drought (Duethmann et al ), it possesses a desert oasis consisting of fragile ecosystems. Bachu County is located to the north of the Yarkant River irrigation district, whose change of groundwater depth is largest in the Yarkant River irrigation area. Agriculture, industry, and household water are most dependent on groundwater resources in Bachu County
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