Probabilistic analysis of embankment slope stability in frozen ground regions based on random finite element method

Abstract

Prediction on the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields of embankment and cutting slopes is essential to the assessment on evolution of melting zone and natural permafrost table, which is usually a key factor for permafrost embankment design in frozen ground regions. The prediction may be further complicated due to the inherent uncertainties of material properties. Hence, stochastic analyses should be conducted. Firstly, Karhunen-Loeve expansion is applied to attain the random fields for hydraulic and thermal conductions. Next, the mixed-form modified Richards equation for mass transfer(i.e., mass equation) and the heat transport equation for heat transient flow in a variably saturated frozen soil are combined into one equation with temperature unknown. Furthermore, the finite element formulation for the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields is derived. Based on the random fields, the stochastic finite element analyses on stability of embankment are carried out. Numerical results show that stochastic analyses of embankment stability may provide a more rational picture for the distribution of factors of safety(FOS), which is definitely useful for embankment design in frozen ground regions.