Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Led Water Contamination: A Case of Sichuan, China

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to evaluate seismic-led point source and non-point source water pollution, under the seismic hazard of 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, and with the minimum value of the water quality standard in Sichuan, China. The soil conservation service curve number method of calculating the runoff depth in the single rainfall event combined with the seismic damage index were applied to estimate the potential degree of non-point source water pollution. To estimate the potential impact of point source water pollution, a comprehensive water pollution evaluation framework is constructed using a combination of Water Quality Index and Seismic Damage Index methods. The four key findings of this paper are: (1) The water catchment that has the highest factory concentration does not have the highest risk of non-point source water contamination induced by the outbreak of potential earthquake. (2) The water catchment that has the highest numbers of cumulative water pollutants types are typically located in the south western parts of Sichuan where the main river basins in the regions flow through. (3) The most common pollutants in sample factories studied is COD and NH3-N which are found in all catchments. The least common pollutant is pathogen—found present in W1 catchment which has the best rating in the water quality index. (4) Using water quality index as a standardization parameter, parallel comparisons is made among the 16 water catchments. Only catchment W1 reaches level II water quality status which has the rating of moderately polluted in events of earthquake induced water contamination. All other areas suffer from severe water contamination with multiple pollution sources. The results from the data model are significant to urban planning commissions and businesses to strategically choose their factory locations in order to minimize potential hazardous impact during the outbreak of earthquake.