Abstract
AbstractCharacterization of critical water distribution system (WDS) contamination scenarios—defined by a set of attributes, a probability of occurrence, and a specific level of consequences—is a prerequisite for preparation of reliable and cost-effective mitigation, preparedness, and emergency response plans. This study develops Monte Carlo and risk-based optimization schemes to evaluate contamination risk of WDSs for generation of this important class of scenarios, which are representative of the most vulnerable aspects of the system. Defining attributes of contamination scenarios are identified as contaminant type and amount, contamination location, start time, duration, and time of year scenario occurs. Well-documented waterborne outbreaks reported in developed nations are analyzed to empirically estimate statistical characteristics of defining attributes in accidental events. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to determine the probability distribution of public-health consequences, aggregate conditi...
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