PROBABILISTIC AGGREGATION OPERATORS AND THEIR APPLICATION IN UNCERTAIN MULTI-PERSON DECISION-MAKING / TIKIMYBINIAI SUMAVIMO OPERATORIAI IR JŲ TAIKYMAS PRIIMANT GRUPINIUS SPRENDIMUS NEAPIBRĖŽTOJE APLINKOJE

Abstract

We present the uncertain probabilistic ordered weighted averaging (UPOWA) operator. It is an aggregation operator that uses probabilities and OWA operators in the same formulation considering the degree of importance of each concept in the analysis. Moreover, it also uses uncertain information assessed with interval numbers in the aggregation process. The main advantage of this aggregation operator is that it is able to use the attitudinal character of the decision maker and the available probabilistic information in an environment where the information is very imprecise and can be assessed with interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases such as the uncertain probabilistic aggregation (UPA) and the uncertain OWA (UOWA) operator. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem in political management regarding the selection of monetary policies. Thus, we obtain the multiperson UPOWA (MP-UPOWA) operator. We see that this model gives more complete information of the decision problem because it is able to deal with decision making problems under uncertainty and under risk in the same formulation. Santrauka Autoriai pristato tikimybinį svertinio vidurkio operatorių, taikytiną neapibrežtumo sąlygomis. Tai tikimybėmis pagrįstas sumavimo operatorius, kuris kartu su svertinio vidurkio operatoriais gali įvertinti alternatyvų svarbumo laipsnį. Be to, jis gali operuoti neapibrežta informacija, išreikšta skaičiais intervaluose. Pagrindinis šio operatoriaus privalumas yra tas, kad jį galima taikyti uždaviniams, kuriuose informacija yra netiksli. Išnagrinėtos kai kurios minėto operatoriaus savybės. Sukurtas metodas pritaikytas monetarinei politikai parinkti, situacijai, kai sprendimus priima žmoniu grupė. Modelis suteikia išsamesnę informaciją apie problemą, nes gali įvertinti neapibrežtumus ir riziką.