PRM105 - Self-Assessed Life Expectancy Among the Elderly in Developing Countries: Evidence From Côte D’ivoire

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to propose an approach to estimate individuals’ expected longevity based on self-assessed survival probabilities and elicit the determinants such subjective life expectancy in a representative sample of elderly people in Côte d’Ivoire. Paper-based questionnaires were administered to a sample (n=267) of older adults residing in the city of Dabou, Côte d’Ivoire, in May 2017. Information on subjective expectations regarding health, comorbidities, and self-assessed survival probabilities was collected. The subjective expectations were related to sociodemographic, health and lifestyle indicators. A spline-based approach was used to estimate the overall distribution of life expectancy for each individual using two to four points of self-assessed survival probabilities. A finite mixture of regression model was used to account for the heterogeneous nature of the distribution of the estimated subjective life expectancy of the study participants and therefore identify components of such distribution. Mean subjective life expectancy in older people varied according to four components. The average subjective life expectancy among elderly people was 79.51, 78.89, 80.02 and 77.79 years in the first (24.73% of the sample), second (20.97%), third (33.33%) and fourth (20.97%) component of the elders’ overall subjective life expectancy respectively. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and lifestyle on subjective life expectancy varied across components. As an example, a U-shape relationship between household per capita income and subjective life expectancy has been established for individuals belonging to the third component while an inverse U-shape relationship was found for individuals belonging the fourth component. We extended the concept of subjective life expectancy by accounting for the heterogeneity in the distribution of the estimated subjective life expectancy. This approach may provide more insights into elderly people’s perceptions regarding aging, which could be used to forecast the demand for health services and long-term care needs.