Private Capital Investment: A Case-Study Approach Towards Testing Alternative Theories

Abstract

THIS paper considers the information collected and used by four businesses, and their formation of expectations, during their generation and appraisal of proposals for four factory investments. The businesses were very large, each with an international reputation, and were members of The Centre for Business Research of Manchester University. They selected fourteen investments for investigation by The Centre for Business Research; I selected the four largecapacity expansion investments from among these fourteen, for further study.' All the case-studies were ex-post so that they could refer to matters no longer secret or controversial. Case-study evidence is complex, lengthy and detailed, drawing on reports, letters and statements. Consequently this paper can only substantiate inferences with particular illustrations from synthesized and camouflaged material; I provide instances of specific actions from one case-study. Case W42 was a diversification investment, executed by acquisition of an existing producer at a cost of over k3oo,ooo. The parent business made a deliberate search for new markets because its income growth and profitability were low; liquidity was very high from I953 to I96I. The time-span from first identifiable idea to visible documentation was seven years, and from then until sanction nineteen months. Formulation of proposals began while the economies of Western Europe and the U.S.A. were expanding rapidly. But uncertainty strongly influenced final specification when U.K. economic growth slowed in I96I-62. There were several well-established producers in the product market. Case X was a pioneer factory investment in an economically underdeveloped country. The business had long experience of such projects, and made a deliberate search for such opportunities. Total initial capital expenditure was over LI .5 million. Five years separated first identifiable idea from visible documentation, and fifteen