Private and public investment in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of instability risks

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of public investment on private investment in sub-Saharan Africa using the finite mixture model. We argue that the impact of public investment on private investment differs across groups of countries with similar but unobserved characteristics. Contrary to previous studies, the paper incorporates the potential presence of hidden heterogeneity and tries to explain the group membership. Using a sample of 42 countries, we find that the impact of public investment on private investment differs across three different groups of countries. Moreover, we find that countries with high risk of conflict, terrorism and repatriation of profits are less likely to be in the group where public investment crowds in private investment. The paper underscores the need for sub-Saharan African countries to ensure private investment security by reducing the risks associated with conflicts and terrorism, and preserving contract viability and repatriation of profits.