Prioritizing risks with composition of probabilistic preferences and weighting of FMEA criteria for fast decision-making in complex scenarios

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to develop a risk prioritization process using failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) in association with composition of probabilistic preferences (CPP) and weighting the risk analysis criteria. It seeks to develop decision-making considering the fast response necessary to achieve project objectives in complex scenarios, such as the pandemic of COrona VIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19).Design/methodology/approachAfter identifying the risks, the prioritization process was applied to a project in the oil and gas area, in which a focus group assessed these risks. This evaluation took place employing traditional FMEA, FMEA with CPP by axes considering four points of view and FMEA with CPP by weighted sum with the use of a multicriteria method to weight the criteria. These approaches were compared to understand their differences and benefits, with a flow chart being developed, consolidating the procedure.FindingsThe methodologies that showed the greatest benefits were FMEA with CPP by axes PO (progressive-optimistic) and by weighted sum. Essentially, this was mainly related to the interrelationship between risks and to the importance of prioritization.Originality/valueThis procedure can consider company's views on what is critical and the interrelationship between risks. It provides a clear segmentation of what should and should not be prioritized. It was also developed in a practical case, showing a possible alternative to support fast responses in decision-making.