Prioritization of renewable energy sources for Turkey by using a hybrid MCDM methodology

Abstract

Developing countries such as Turkey, with their fast growing population and economy, are facing an increasing demand for energy. Turkey does not possess a sufficient quantity of domestic oil and natural gas resources to support this growing demand. On the other hand, the country does have abundant reserves of renewable energy that can be a major component in providing part of the overall energy supply. The country plans to explore its renewable energy (RE) sources and increase the renewable energy share in near future. With this in mind, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on BOCR (Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks) and ANP (Analytic Network Process) to determine Turkey’s energy status and prioritize alternative RE sources. BOCR analysis provides a strategic analysis and detailed overview of the country’s energy issues. ANP is a practical multi criteria decision making (MCDM) method and offers the advantages of decision making models, based on tangible and intangible factors. 19 criteria are used to evaluate five alternative RE sources (Hydro, Geothermal, Solar, Wind and Biomass). The subsequent results show that the most important strategic criterion is economy; other criteria include security, human wellbeing, technology and global effects. Their weights are 0.485, 0.235, 0.130, 0.097 and 0.053, respectively. In the conclusion of this paper, the authors propose hydro power as the optimal RE source for the country.