Prior Return Effect in Indian Stock Market: Some Empirical Evidence

Abstract

Prior return effect – momentum and contrarian, is a well documented phenomenon in developed stock markets. This paper examines if there is any prior return effect in Indian stock market, an advanced emerging market in the world. We use daily price data available for stocks forming part of S&P CNX 500 equity index over a total period of five years beginning from July, 2006 to June, 2011.We find that in Indian stock market, security returns do exhibit predictable patterns following extreme daily price shocks. They exhibit a reversal in their direction during few days subsequent to an event of extreme rise insecurity’s daily closing prices. Conversely, after experiencing an extreme decline in their daily closing prices, they continue to follow the downward journey recording lower prices on few days subsequent to the day of extreme price decline. Evidence from non-overlapping test period days also indicates overreaction for the winner portfolio and under reaction for the loser portfolio. These findings indicate that investors in the Indian Stock Market are overoptimistic. When re-pricing stocks in response to new information, their immediate reaction causes the stock prices to be above their adjusted expected values.