Primary Care Physician Workforce 2020 to 2025 - a cross-sectional study for the Canton of Bern.

Abstract

The Swiss primary care sector faces a lack in its workforce and the Canton of Bern - the second largest canton (i.e. federal state)- is believed to be more affected than others. To be able to predict a shortage in the overall workforce, reliable numbers for the workforce of all generalpractitioners (GPs) and paediatricians (primary care physicians, PCPs) actively working in the Canton of Bern are needed. Switzerland has no registry of active PCPs; therefore, our goal was to (1) define the number and characteristics of all PCPs in the Canton of Bern, (2) to establish the workforce density for the whole canton and its administrative districts, and (3) to forecast the next five years with respect to the PCP workforce development. In this cross-sectional study, we contacted all potential PCPs of the Canton of Bern. We included all board-certified physicians in general internal medicine, paediatrics and physicians with the title "Praktischer Arzt (practical doctor)" with a professional license from the available registers (MedReg and the FMHregister). All potential PCPs received a questionnaire to assess their involvement in the primary care setting, their personal characteristics including workload (current and in 5 years to allowus to estimate the projected workforce per projected population size in 2025), type of practice, administrative district, and additional questions on their acceptance of new patients and their perception of a shortage in their region. The data from non-responders were collected via follow-up letters, emails and phone calls. The density was calculated as full-time equivalent PCPs per 1000 inhabitants in total and per district. From all potential PCPs (n = 2217), we identified 972 working in the Canton of Bern, 851 as GPs (88%) and 121 as paediatricians (12%). From these physicians, we had a response rate of 95%. The mean age was 53 years for GPs and 50 years for paediatricians. Thirteenpercentof all PCPswere aged 65 or older. The average workload was 7.6 half-days (GPs) and 6.9 half-days (paediatricians). We found a density of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.81) full-time equivalents per 1000 inhabitants for the total of the Canton of Bern, and a regional variability withdensities between 0.59 to 0.93. Without new PCPs, the workforce density of PCPs will drop to 0.56 (95% CI 0.49-0.62) within the next 5years. This is the first study in which 95% of active PCPs participated and it demonstrated that within the next 5 years there will be a shortage in the workforce of PCPs that can only be improved by higher numbers of new domestic PCPs - even after accounting for the current inflow of foreign PCPs.