Prices and Inflation in Global Value Chains : A global inflation-to-output price elasticity database with applications

Abstract

Global value chains (GVCs) are important transmitters of product price shocks, which, in the end, will be expressed in national inflation rates. This paper deals with this phenomenon by presenting and applying an input-output model of global cost-push price transmissions using the 2021 edition of OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables. Output prices are linked to several inflation rates by the concept of inflation-to-output price elasticity. Inflation elastici-ties are decomposed into local, simple, and complex global value chain effects and collected into the Global Inflation-to-Output Price Elasticity Database (GIOPED) published along with the paper. A step-by-step guide shows how to import data and perform quick interactive form impact analyses in Microsoft Excel. The presented GIOPED exercises reveal that local value chains are still dominant in determining inflation, although there are significant differences bet-ween countries. For Hungary, selected for an illustrative country study, inflation elasticities are higher with smaller domestic components, and exposures to current global shocks are consi-derable. Movements of energy commodity prices explain about a third of autumn 2022 Hunga-rian inflation rates.