Price Trend Analysis and its Implications for the Development of New Medical Technologies

Abstract

It is assumed that a company will only develop a new medical technology if it has evidence that it will provide returns that are greater than the investment required to develop that technology and bring it to the market. The price that can be commanded for the new products and the volumes of the products that are sold determine, in large measure, the returns that will be made on the initial investment. Estimating the sales volumes and prices of products are critical factors in decision making during product development. Once in the market prices are not static. Rather they are affected by a range of factors. This paper considers the effect that market experience, represented by cumulative volume of sales, has on prices. How quickly the price declines in response to experience is dependent on a number of factors. How price trends from products already in the market can be used to inform investment decisions of new products and technologies is described.