Abstract
Chili is one of the agricultural commodities consumed by Indonesian people. Market data in recent years show that chili prices tend to fluctuate as supply and demand changes. One of the impacts of chili price changes for farmers is the production cost is higher than the selling price. In addition to supply and demand changes, the weather is also indicated as a factor of price changes due to the weather being considered by farmers to grow chili. Price prediction is needed to determine the condition of chili prices in the future to help farmers in making decisions to plant at the right time. One method that can be used to make prediction is Data Mining classification method. In this paper, Bayesian network algorithm was used as Data Mining classification method to predict the price of chili commodity in Bandung Regency based on weather information and classified the price into economic class and not economic class. The result shows that the prediction model obtained by the Bayesian Network gives a system’s performance for precision and recall that is 1 and 0.94 respectively with average accuracy of 85.5% in classifying the price.
Highlights
INDONESIA is a country whose population is still dependent on agriculture
If the production cost is higher than the selling price the price is not economic
The aim of this paper is to predict the price of chilli commodity in Bandung Regency with the output of chili prices that have been classified into economic class and not economic class
Summary
INDONESIA is a country whose population is still dependent on agriculture. One of the most consumed agricultural commodities by Indonesian people is chilli. The high demand for chili makes chili prices fluctuate (Firdaus, & Gunawan, 2013) and becomes one of the reasons for the high inflation rate in Indonesia (Mariyono, Joko, & Sumarno, 2016). With the farmers selling price lower than the production cost makes farmers loss (Ditakristy, Saepudin, & Nhita 2016), which causes the price of chilli is not economic for farmers. Economic price for farmers is if the production cost incurred is less than the selling price. If the production cost is higher than the selling price the price is not economic. With the weather changing conditions it is very influential on chili plants.price prediction becomes very important and necessary. With the prediction of the price, farmers could know the condition of chili prices in the future so it can helps farmers in determining the right planting time
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