Price effect and competition coefficients of agricultural exports - the case for Vietnamese export rice

Abstract

In order to support a previous analysis of the increase in export value in Vietnamese rice market, the paper aims to identify whether or not the increase was caused by quantity or price effects. Along with the monthly data between 02/2009 and 08/2015, this paper uses the double logarit and error correction model (ECM) to estimate the price competition coefficients from Thai and Pakistani rice. Regression results confirmed the price effects of Thai and Pakistani rice price on Vietnamese price in the long run but not vice versa. The Vietnamese price was also altered which was followed by a change of exchange rate and yearly seasons. To reduce the risk of fluctuation in price, the Vietnamese Government and producers need to concern about momentous solutions such as increasing the quality of rice in proportion to consumer safety, establishing crop monitoring systems effectively to warn weather risks. Rice producers should apply information technology to correctly get an accurate reflection of the current market, manage the production process as well as take care of macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate.