Price Earning Ratio Effect : A Test of the Semi Strong Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in Indian Stock Market

Abstract

Proponents of Semi strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) claim that security prices fully reflect all publicly available information in a rapid and unbiased manner. Opponents of this Hypothesis question its validity by explaining various anomalies in stock markets. One such anomaly that they elucidate is Price Earning (P/E) ratio Effect, which is based on the premise that P/E ratios are indicators of the investment performance of a security and low P/E stocks have a tendency to outperform high P/E stocks even after adjusting for underlying risks.The purpose of the study is to empirically test the relationship between P/E ratios and equity returns in Indian stock market based on monthly stock returns of 90 companies during the period April 2006 – June 2012 and thereby to examine the validity of semi strong form of EMH. The study applies Jensen, Sharpe and Treynor measures, which are based on Sharpe-Linter Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to test the risk- return relationships of these portfolios and to compare whether portfolio of low P/E stocks outperforms the portfolio of High P/E stocks. The study attempts to test, if there is any statistically significant difference between the returns of such a portfolio and a simple buy and old strategy. The study also attempts to examine if there is any statistically significant difference between the returns of Lowest P/E portfolio and Highest P/E portfolio using an alternative specification of CAPM. The findings of the study explain the superior performance of low P/E portfolio to high P/E portfolio, indicating the premium associated with cheap stock.