Prey availability modulates predicted range contraction of two large felids in response to changing climate

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tools currently available for assessing vulnerability to climatic change. Most past projections of the effects of climate change on species distribution have ignored biological interactions. We evaluated to what degree incorporating prey availability into climatic-based SDMs would change the predicted future distribution of the Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) and the Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor). We projected climate niches using (1) only the climatic variables; (2) both climatic and prey availability data. When we based inferences on models that did not account for prey availability, we predicted that the range of the Asiatic cheetah would contract by 42% between current and future under a low-emissions scenario, whereas the range of the Persian leopard would expand by 9%. Adding the effects of prey availability into the model did not affect predictions for the Asiatic cheetah (41% range contraction), but did alter predictions for the Persian leopard, whose range was expected to contract by 25%. Persian leopards are predicted to be less affected by climate change when the analysis considers climatic variables only, but when models are integrated with the prey data, large habitat losses are predicted. Our results show that there can be complex and large interactions between climate change and other limiting ecological resources which must be accounted for in SDMs. It is therefore important to integrate biotic interactions and the temporal dynamics of species distribution induced by climate change into conservation planning to optimally plan the spatial distribution of conservation areas.