Previsualizing a post-combustion world.

Abstract

Previsualizing a Post-Combustion World “For when in all other places the Aer is most Serene and Pure, it is here Ecclipsed with such a Cloud of Sulphure, as the Sun it self, which gives day to all the World besides, is hardly able to penetrate and impart it here; and the weary Traveller, at many Miles distance, sooner smells, then sees the City to which he repairs.” — Evelyn (1661) “Using the commons as a cesspool does not harm the general public under frontier conditions, because there is no public; the same behavior in a metropolis is unbearable. — Hardin (1968) “There is nothing worse than a sharp image of a fuzzy concept.” — Ansel Adams The taming of fire and its application for beneficial purposes is a great achievement of humankind. And yet, fire is not fully tamed. Carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is altering Earth’s climate. Emissions from power plants produce regional haze. Motor vehicle emissions foul urban air. Cooking with solid fuels pollutes the households of billions. Perhaps it is time for humankind to start planning to leave behind deliberate combustion. Ansel Adams wrote about visualization, stressing the photographer’s need to imagine the captured and printed image before attempting an exposure. Minor White named a part of this process previsualization: imagining the outcome while studying the subject. For the purposes of this editorial, I use this term to acknowledge the difficulty to fully imagine a modern, future world that doesn’t rely upon combustion. Nevertheless, I believe that the effort to previsualize can inspire and guide efforts that promise beneficent outcomes. Climate change concerns provide a strong impetus for divesting ourselves from our heavy dependence on combustion. Although lacking as yet is a sufficiently strong international agreement to effectively counteract anthropogenic climate change, some people and some governments are taking action. The case of California illustrates some important points. In 2005, then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed an executive order calling for strong future reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The longer-term goal targets a reduction by 2050 to 80 percent below the state’s 1990 emission levels. A year 2015 executive order from current Governor Jerry Brown reaffirmed this goal. Allowing for expected population growth, the necessary per capita emissions reduction would be roughly 90 percent, to a level of about 1 kg of carbon equivalent per day per California resident. That per capita average greenhouse emission rate, if achieved worldwide during the second half of the 21 st century, would help maintain the atmospheric CO 2 levels below an upper bound of ~ 450-550 ppm (based on predictions for the 21 st century for ICPP scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5). Those levels would not suffice to prevent some climate change, but these outcomes would be far better for the environment than unbridled continuation of business-as-usual, for which a year 2100 ambient CO 2 level is predicted to range from ~ 650 ppm to above 900 ppm (based on predictions for ICPP scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the year 2012 global-average per-capita carbon dioxide emission rate from energy use corresponds to almost 3.5 kg of carbon