Abstract
Hazard reduction policies include seismic hazard maps based on probabilistic evaluations and the evaluation of geophysical parameters continuously recorded by instrumental networks. Over the past 25 centuries, a large amount of information about earthquake precursory phenomena has been recorded by scholars, scientific institutions, and civil defense agencies. In particular, hydrogeologic measurements and geochemical analyses have been performed in geofluids in search of possible and reliable earthquake precursors. Controlled experimental areas have been set up to investigate physical and chemical mechanisms originating possible preseismic precursory signals. The main test sites for such research are located in China, Iceland, Japan, the Russian Federation, Taiwan, and the USA. The present state of the art about the most relevant scientific achievements has been described. Future research trends and possible development paths have been identified and allow for possible improvements in policies oriented to seismic hazard reduction by geofluid monitoring.
Highlights
Civil defense authorities of all over the world need to forecast earthquakes
Earthquake forecasting is based on the understanding of physical laws that relate to the measurement of those physical or chemical parameters believed to be precursors to the occurrence of seismic events
The monitoring network devoted to geofluids is at present composed of 11 sites equipped with automatic instrumentation
Summary
Civil defense authorities of all over the world need to forecast earthquakes. For these purposes, most utilized methods are based on probability evaluations. Earthquake prediction research based on parameters believed to be precursors of earthquakes is still controversial and still appear to be premature for the practical purposes demanded by governmental standards [3] Despite these limitations, part of the scientific community argue that possible improvements to probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations. The empirical approach to the problem of earthquake prediction is the attempt to establish phenomenological laws that have led, during historical times, many scholars and researchers to suggest specific relationships between precursors and earthquakes. These studies reached the scientific dignity of present-day studies about a century ago through the activities of researchers like Bendandi in. The first critique of Aristotle’s theories came from Georg Bauer (known as Agricola, 1494–1555), who refused to accept the Aristotelian seismology of signs predicting earthquakes and believed in the unpredictability of earthquakes [35]
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