Prevention strategy of post-operative complications in elderly patients with colorectal cancer based on scoring systems

Abstract

To explore the risk factors and prevention strategies of post-operative complications in elderly patients with colorectal cancer. Data of 107 elderly patients (≥75 years) undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer were collected from January 2006 to December 2009 in the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Peking University People's Hospital. POSSUM and E-POSSUM scoring systems were used to predict post-operative complications. ROC curve and observe/expect(O/E) were used to assess the validity of scoring systems. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the independent risk factors associated with post-operative complications of elderly patients with colorectal cancer. The predictive complication rates of E-POSSUM and POSSUM in elderly patients with colorectal cancer were 13.9%-86.6%(average, 32.7%) and 19.1%-99.1% (average, 55.5%). The predictive validity of E-POSSUM was better than POSSUM(AUC of ROC: 0.862 vs. 0.576, O/E: 0.771 vs. 0.454), the former was closer to the actual complication rate(25.2%, 27/107). Concurrent diabetes mellitus(P=0.019) and rectal lesion(P=0.005) were independent risk factors associated with surgery-related post-operative complications. Anastomotic leakage was the most common surgery-related post-operative complications. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(P=0.026), ASA score(P=0.025), intestinal obstruction(P=0.037) and perforation(P=0.001) were independent risk factors associated with non-surgery-related post-operative complications. Pulmonary infection was the most common non-surgery-related post-operative complication. The application of E-POSSUM scoring system can provide more accurate prediction of post-operative complications in elderly patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer. Positive interventions should be taken for high-risk patients to prevent post-operative complications.