Prevention of vertical HIV transmission with zidovudine: Projected impact of HIV testing and prenatal care

Abstract

We sought to estimate the impact of maternal HIV testing and prenatal care on the potential to reduce vertical transmission through zidovudine (AZT) use by HIV-infected mothers. We evaluated the prepartum maternal HIV diagnosis rate, prenatal care, disease stage, and vertical transmission rate (from a two-part mixture model) using New York State Medicaid and vital statistics data for HIV-infected mothers and their singletons in 1985-90. We used published data to estimate the effect of AZT on vertical transmission and expert input to define other parameters for the model. Our HIV-infected (N = 1514) had a vertical transmission rate of 27.0%. HIV was diagnosed prepartum for 39.5% of women in 1990. Transmission would have been 22.2% if AZT had been taken only by the subset of women diagnosed prepartum with HIV and receiving prenatal care by 34 weeks gestation (86.7%). Transmission would have dropped to 11.2% if all women had been diagnosed prepartum with HIV and received adequate prenatal care. The observed deficiencies in prenatal care and maternal HIV diagnosis rates in this Medicaid population-based cohort must be addressed to realize the promise of AZT to reduce vertical transmission.