Preventing confrontation and conflict in the South China Sea

Abstract

Beginning in the late 1960s, territorial disputes in the South China Sea have transitioned through several different phases. Since the United States, in conjunction with its allies and partners under the traditional security framework, intervened through military and diplomatic means, disputes in the region have become more acute and complex than ever before. What does the future hold for countries inside and outside of the South China Sea region and their relationships with each other? Will these disputes escalate or de-escalate? Will diplomatic friction and confrontation develop into direct conflict at sea? If 2019 was any indication, new instabilities and intractable discord at the local level are likely in the 2020s and beyond. Unilateral actions by Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even the Philippines in the post-Duterte era will trigger turbulence in the South China Sea. China will find the maritime cooperation it champions more difficult to advance. Negotiations over the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) may encounter unexpected hurdles. Related legal disputes may heat up again and rise to the international level. Close ties between the United States and Vietnam could lead to a “black swan” event.