Prevalent underestimation of tree cooling efficiency attributed to urban intrinsic heterogeneity

Abstract

As cities worldwide grapple with the escalating challenges of extreme heat events, afforestation can serve as an effective adaptation measure to mitigate heat stress. This study presents a comprehensive nationwide assessment of urban tree-induced cooling effects and provides a more accurate and robust methodology that accounts for the influence of spatial heterogeneity within the complex urban environment. Results reveal that the conventional method for assessing cooling efficiency (TCE) is substantially influenced by urban heterogeneity, in terms of both horizontal and vertical structures. The revised tree cooling efficiency (RTCE), designed to minimize the impacts of other land cover types on surface temperature variations, was proved to be a more accurate estimation. In 362 out of 379 cities across China, TCE tended to underestimate the cooling effects as a result of spatial heterogeneity. The nationwide average disparity between RTCE and TCE was approximately 0.047±0.0145 ℃ per percent (95 % confidence interval). The largest differences were observed among high-rise environments, highlighting the undervalued heat mitigation potential of urban trees in compact and densely populated urban settings. This study emphasizes the considerable potential of urban tree-cooling effects in mitigating heat stress in the face of a warming planet.