Prevalence of SELECT-eligibility and incidence of 5-year major adverse cardiovascular outcomes in non-diabetic patients with myocardial infarction

Abstract

Abstract Background The ongoing Semaglutide Effects on Heart Disease and Stroke in Patients with Overweight or Obesity (SELECT) trial has randomized 17,605 non-diabetic patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥27 kg/m2 to treatment with semaglutide versus placebo. Follow-up will be terminated on March 31, 2023. In consecutive myocardial infarction (MI) patients representing daily clinical practice, the prevalence of SELECT-eligible patients and the incidence of the three-point major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; MI, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death) are not known. Purpose To assess the prevalence of SELECT-eligibility and the incidence of 5-year MACE in SELECT-eligible patients in a contemporary semi-nationwide European MI cohort representing daily clinical practice. Methods We identified 34,385 patients with a first-time MI and followed the in- and exclusion criteria for the SELECT trial as outlined in the Figure. Concordant with the SELECT trial, follow-up started on day 60 and maximum follow-up time was 5 years. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for the SELECT-eligible cohort using patients with a BMI from 20 to <27 kg/m2 as reference group. Moreover, we stratified the SELECT-eligible cohort by BMI ≥27 to <33 kg/m2 and ≥33 kg/m2. Results As depicted in the Figure, 10,769 patients with a BMI ≥27 kg/m2 were eligible for SELECT (SELECT-eligible cohort), which corresponds to a prevalence of 31% in the entire 34,385 MI cohort. The normoweight reference group included 11,011 patients. At baseline, the median age was 64 years for the SELECT-eligible cohort and 68 years for the reference group. Stratification of the SELECT-eligible cohort showed median age of 65 years for the BMI ≥27 to <33 kg/m2 and 63 years for the BMI ≥33 kg/m2 subgroups. The cumulative 5-year incidence of MACE was 10.7% for SELECT-eligible and 13.2% for reference patients (aHR 0.96, 95% CI 0.88-1.04). When stratifying the SELECT-eligible cohort, those with BMI ≥27 to <33 and ≥33 kg/m2 had cumulative 5-year incidence of 10.9% (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.87-1.04) and 9.9% (aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.84-1.16). Conclusions In a large contemporary semi-nationwide cohort of consecutive MI patients, approximately 3 out of 10 were eligible for the SELECT trial and the estimated 5-year MACE incidence in SELECT-eligible patients was just above 10%. SELECT-eligible patients experienced the index MI up to 7 years earlier than the reference group. However, the 5-year incidence of MACE did not suggest that overweight/obese patients fulfilling SELECT eligibility criteria were associated with an excess MACE risk when compared to a normoweight reference group.