Prevalence of Metabolic-associated Fatty Liver Disease in Mexico and Development of a Screening Tool: The MAFLD-S Score.

Abstract

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease. Nowadays, the prevalence of MAFLD in Mexico is unknown with no screening point-of-care tools. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of MAFLD in Mexico and to develop a score for MAFLD screening. We conducted a cross-sectional study in 5 Mexican states, including adult subjects evaluated in checkup campaigns. Subjects underwent a liver ultrasound to look for hepatic steatosis. Based on the most clinically relevant variables associated with MAFLD, we developed the MAFLD-screening score (MAFLD-S). Discrimination and calibration of the score were evaluated using the area under the ROC curve and observed vs predicted plots, respectively. We included 3357 participants (60% female, mean age 47 ± 12 years). Fifty-two percent had hepatic steatosis, and 47% met MAFLD criteria. Subjects with MAFLD were older (48 ± 11 vs 45 ± 13 years, P < .001), were more frequently males (43% vs 36%, P < .001), and had a higher body mass index (31.6+ 4.9 vs 25.6+ 3.8 kg/m2, P < .001) than subjects without MAFLD. The MAFLD-S includes age, body mass index, gender, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia and has an area under the curve of 0.852, 95% CI= 0.828-0.877, with a sensitivity of 78.8% and a specificity of 82.8% for the optimal cutoff. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2018-2019, we predicted a MAFLD national prevalence of 49.6%. Nearly half of the Mexican population has MAFLD, representing a present and future challenge. With external validation, the MAFLD-S could be a valuable and practical screening tool.