Abstract
Epilepsy is a major neurological disorder that affects approximately 65 million people worldwide. Globally, the burden of epilepsy is not evenly distributed, with more than 80% of sufferers residing in low- and middle-income countries. This study estimates the burden of epilepsy in mainland China from 1990 to 2015 and explores the variations of burden by age and gender. We conducted a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature from 1990 to 2015 using Chinese and English academic databases (CNKI, WanFang, VIP and PubMed) to identify population-based prospective studies on the prevalence of epilepsy in mainland Chinese. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence of lifetime epilepsy (LTE), and restricted cubic regression splines were applied to model the functional forms of the non-linear effects of age and LTE prevalence. Random-effect meta-analysis was used to obtain the pooled prevalence of 1-year active epilepsy (AE), 2-year AE and 5-year AE separately. To estimate the number of people with LTE and AE in the years 1990, 2000, and 2015, LTE and AE prevalence were multiplied by the total population of mainland China of the corresponding year. Analyses were conducted using 39 prevalence studies that met the inclusion criteria and comprised 77 separate data points (37 on LTE, 16 on 1-year AE, 12 on 2-year AE and 12 on 5-year AE). In 1990, the prevalence of LTE ranged from 1.31‰ (95% CI = 0.85-2.00) in the 0-4 age group to 2.42‰ (95% confidence interval CI = 1.60-3.65) in the 30-34 age group. By 2015, the LTE prevalence had increased to 4.57‰ (95% CI = 2.52-8.27) in the 0-4 group and 8.43‰ (95% CI = 4.71-15.04) in the 30-34 group. Over the 25-year period, the overall prevalence of LTE had steadily increased by 259%, from 1.99‰ (95% CI = 1.31-3.02) in 1990 to 7.15‰ (95% CI = 3.98-12.82) in 2015. The rates of increase were similar across the whole age spectrum, fluctuating around 250%. Between 1990 and 2015, the total number of people with LTE in mainland China increased by 328%, from 2.30 million (95% CI = 1.51-3.49) in 1990 to 9.84 million (95% CI = 5.48-17.64) in 2015. The pooled 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year AE prevalence were 3.79‰ (95% CI = 3.31-4.34), 4.08‰ (95% CI = 3.41-4.89) and 4.19‰ (95% CI = 3.42-5.15). The burden of LTE in China has increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, with the prevalence of LTE having more than doubled and the number of people with LTE more than tripled. The large amount of AE cases in China calls for optimal management and treatment. More high-quality epidemiological studies on LTE and AE prevalence are still needed.
Highlights
Correspondence to: Background Epilepsy is a major neurological disorder that affects approximately 65 million people worldwide
The large amount of active epilepsy (AE) cases in China calls for optimal management and treatment
It is estimated that mortality in people with epilepsy is two to three times higher than in the general population [12], while the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 2013 estimated the disability–adjusted life year for epilepsy to be 253 per 100 000 people [13,14]
Summary
We conducted a systematic review of the peer–reviewed literature from 1990 to 2015 using Chinese and English academic databases (CNKI, WanFang, VIP and PubMed) to identify population–based prospective studies on the prevalence of epilepsy in mainland Chinese. We conducted a parallel systematic review of the published literature from 1990 to 2015 using PubMed and three Chinese databases; China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang Data, VIP in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta–Analyses (PRISMA) Guidelines and the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) statement [30,31]. Our inclusion criteria were: (1) population–based studies; (2) studies of mainland Chinese populations in mainland China; (3) studies that provide prevalence of lifetime epilepsy (LTE) and/or active epilepsy (AE); (4) studies that include clear case definitions (the case definitions used to define a case of epilepsy are described in detail in Table S2 in Online Supplementary Document).
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