Abstract

BackgroundHIV-1 circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) infections has been increasing in Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries in the recent decade. One is the CRF03_AB, which circulated in the region since late 1990s and probably became widespread in northwestern FSU countries. However, there is not much information provided about the dissemination of this recombinant. Here, we examine the prevalence, evolutionary dynamics and dispersion pattern of HIV-1 CRF03_AB recombinant.MethodsWe analyzed 32 independent studies and 151 HIV-1 CRF03_AB pol sequences isolated from different FSU countries over a period of 22 years. Pooled prevalence was estimated using a random effects model. Bayesian coalescent-based method was used to estimate the evolutionary, phylogeographic and demographic parameters.ResultsOur meta-analysis showed that the pooled prevalence of CRF03_AB infection in northwestern FSU region was 5.9% [95%CI: 4.1–7.8]. Lithuania (11.6%), Russia (5.9%) and Belarus (2.9%) were the most affected by CRF03_AB. We found that early region wide spread of HIV-1 CRF03_AB originated from one viral clade that arose in the city of Kaliningrad in 1992 [95%HPD: 1990–1995]. Fourteen migration route of this variant were found. The city of Kaliningrad is involved in most of these, confirming its leading role in CRF03_AB spread within FSU. Demographic reconstruction point to this is that CRF03_AB clade seems to have experienced an exponential growth until the mid-2000s and a decrease in recent years.ConclusionThese data provide new insights into the molecular epidemiology of CRF03_AB as well as contributing to the fundamental understanding of HIV epidemic in FSU.

Highlights

  • High mutation and recombination rates of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) along with the rapid growth of its genetic diversity impede the development of an effective preventive HIV vaccine

  • Our meta-analysis showed that the pooled prevalence of CRF03_AB infection in northwestern Former Soviet Union (FSU) region was 5.9% [95%CI: 4.1–7.8]

  • We found that early region wide spread of HIV-1 CRF03_AB originated from one viral clade that arose in the city of Kaliningrad in 1992 [95%HPD: 1990–1995]

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Summary

Introduction

High mutation and recombination rates of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) along with the rapid growth of its genetic diversity impede the development of an effective preventive HIV vaccine. The same properties of the virus form the basis for studying the dynamics of evolutionary changes over time and track the patterns of virus spread during HIV-1 epidemics [1, 2]. The massive economic crisis and increased drug abuse, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, have created a situation favorable for the HIV spread in the region and laying the foundation to start fastest-growing HIV/AIDS epidemic in the world [8]. The Eastern Europe and Central Asia countries, formerly part of the Soviet Union (FSU), are facing an enormous challenge from the rapid spread of the HIV-1 epidemic. HIV-1 circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) infections has been increasing in Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries in the recent decade. We examine the prevalence, evolutionary dynamics and dispersion pattern of HIV-1 CRF03_AB recombinant

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