Prevalence and Moderators of the Candidate Name-Order Effect

Abstract

Although some past studies suggest that candidates may receive more votes when their names are listed first among their competitors than when they are listed later, two recent studies challenged this conclusion with regard to major-party candidates running in statewide races and raised questions about the impact of analytic methods on the conclusions of name-order research. Using the largest data set to date�a set of quasi-randomized natural experiments involving 402 candidates running in 76 statewide California elections�this study tests a series of hypotheses about the conditions under which name-order effects are most likely. Regardless of the analytic method used, a small primacy effect appeared consistently that could have a substantive impact on some contests. This effect was larger in races for lower-visibility offices, in years with higher turnout, and in races that were not close. All of this is consistent with the claim that name-order effects occur among voters who have little or no information about the candidates or among voters who feel ambivalence about the candidates.