Pretrial Risk Assessment Instruments in the United States

Abstract

Over the last few years, the use of actuarial pretrial risk assessments has proliferated across the country. These tools have been embraced as an objective, technical solution to America’s overreliance on pretrial incarceration. Yet based on emerging evidence, it is increasingly unclear whether pretrial risk assessments contribute to reductions in pretrial incarceration, or whether they do so as consistently, efficiently, or fairly as their proponents suggest. In this chapter, we trace the development of pretrial risk assessments and situate them within the broader progression of assessment technologies. From there, we review a handful of validated pretrial risk assessment tools, including their composition, performance, and application. Adopting a critical lens, we present an empirical exercise to break down model performance and to highlight additional indicators that should feature centrally in researcher and practitioner discussions and decision-making processes. We conclude with a series of implementation challenges and practical implications of tool adoption, and a call for additional research to undergird the ongoing efforts of reformers and policymakers within the pretrial space.