Presidential Speechmaking and the Public Audience: Individual Presidents and Group Attitudes

Abstract

The study examines the impact of the major prime-time addresses of individual presidents from Johnson through Reagan on the attitudes of party and income groups within the public from 1965 to 1983. Three patterns of group effects are hypothesized: (1) an inclusive pattern in which a president improves his popularity among a broad range of groups, including critics and backers, (2) a discordant pattern in which a president improves his standing with one group at the expense of another, and (3) an impassive pattern in which a president leaves unaffected groups who are not already supportive. The findings reveal that relative to the influences of inflation, unemployment, national events, inaugurations, and military involvement, each president except Nixon achieves inclusive non-partisan approval gains by delivering a major national address. Discordant and impassive patterns are observed for Nixon, who antagonizes Democrats with his speeches, but leaves unaffected Republicans and Independents. In relatively inclusive ways, the speeches of each of the other four presidents also boost support among middle- and upper-income people. Ironically, Reagan alone gains increased approval from low-income individuals. Nixon's speeches produce discordant results by increasing his support among those with high incomes, while decreasing approval of those with low incomes.