Presidential Primaries in Chile, 2013-2021: Institutions, Voter Turnout, and Results

Abstract

Objective/context: This article analyzes the presidential primary elections in Chile from 2013 to 2021. As established by law, unlike in other Latin American countries, these elections are voluntary, simultaneous, and binding. Methodology: Presidential primary elections are studied in three dimensions: first, the institutions that regulate them; second, the electoral participation; and third, the results. For the analysis of the institutions, Law 20640 is explained. For electoral participation and the results of the primary elections, the statistical method is used, including a descriptive and inferential data analysis; the latter, mainly with multiple linear regression models and graphs of predicted values. Conclusions: Electoral participation in primaries significantly predicts participation in the general election and is strongly determined by the levels of poverty and rurality of the communes. Regarding the results, the Chilean experience shows that ideologically extreme candidates do not always triumph and that in some occasions—such as the 2021 elections—the relationship between the outcome of the primary elections and the candidates’ electoral performance in the first round is far from robust. Originality: This study analyzes three electoral cycles of presidential primaries in Chile and combines an analysis of the institutions that regulate the process with the application of statistical models to explain turnout and electoral results.