Presidential Campaigning during Midterm Elections

Abstract

Previous studies have approached presidential campaigning at midterm from very different theoretical vantages. One component of the literature suggests that president’s campaign at midterm primarily to aid individual candidates and improve congressional makeup, while another argues that all presidential travel is part of the permanent campaign that presidents undertake in order to further personal reelection goals. Interestingly, these approaches, and the factors that each suggests influence presidential decisions, have remained effectively insulated from one another in empirical studies of presidential travel and campaigning. This study combines these complimentary theoretical stories to provide a more comprehensive model of presidential campaigning in midterm elections. We test this model in an analysis of midterm campaign stops between 1994 and 2006 and show a mix of factors from both literatures best explain presidential campaigning at midterm.