Preserving Ukraine's Electric Grid During the Russian Invasion

Abstract

In February 2022, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, a country with an interconnected electric grid.1 While most analysts have concentrated on the military dimensions of Russia's attack, the implications for energy infrastructure are both unprecedented and critically important. Russia has incentives to preserve reliable operation of Ukraine's electric grid. Both sides have shown restraint in attacking energy infrastructure. An apparent Russian objective is keeping hard‐to‐replace infrastructure intact, especially hydroelectric and nuclear plants. Ukraine's natural gas pipeline system depends on grid electricity for its centralized control. Russia profits from transmission of its natural gas through Ukraine's pipelines to Europe. All countries seek to avoid infrastructure accidents and human migrations that are disruptive to their own societies. Nonetheless, by export ban, naval blockade, and physical attack, Russia has disrupted fuel supplies for Ukraine's generating plants. Interconnected electric grids are vulnerable to cascading collapse after forced outages of generating plants, transmission system disruptions, and deliberate attacks. As winter approaches, fuel supplies for Ukraine's electric grid will be constrained and the possibility of grid collapse increases. If Ukraine's electric grid were to be inoperable for a prolonged period, the result could be widespread death by famine, disease, and, in winter, hypothermia. Nuclear reactor meltdowns and spent fuel pool fires could also result, with radiation release extending beyond Ukraine's borders. Millions of refugees would cross the borders of Poland, Russia, Belarus, and other regional neighbors. Ukraine should develop a robust plan for electric grid restoration, including asking the Ukrainian people for their assistance during emergencies. To this end, financial and other targeted support for Ukraine's electricity sector by European and other allies may be essential to reduce the prospect of long‐term grid collapse. Events in Ukraine have public policy lessons for all nations with electric grids vulnerable to cascading collapse and long‐term outage.