Present Tectonic Setting and Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Seismicity in the Apennine Belt

Enzo Mantovani,Massimo Baglione,Caterina Tamburelli,Nicola Cenni,Marcello Viti,Daniele Babbucci,Vittorio D’Intinosante

doi:10.4236/ijg.2015.64034

Abstract

In previous papers, we have argued that a close connection may exist between the discontinuous northward displacement of the Adria plate and the spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the periAdriatic regions [1]-[3]. In particular, five seismic sequences are tentatively recognized in the post 1400 A.D. seismic history, each characterized by a progressive migration of major shocks along the eastern (Hellenides, Dinarides), western (Apennines) and northern (Eastern Southern Alps) boundaries of Adria. In this work, we describe an attempt at gaining insights into the short-term evolution of the strain field that underlies the migration of seismicity in the Apennine belt. The results of this study suggest that seismicity in the study area is mainly conditioned by the fact that the outer (Adriatic) sector of the Apennine belt, driven by the Adria plate, is moving faster than the inner (Tyrrhenian) belt. This kinematics is consistent with the observed Pleistocene deformation pattern and the velocity field inferred by GPS data. The spatio-temporal distribution of major shocks during the last still ongoing seismic sequence (post 1930) suggests that at present the probability of next major shocks is highest in the Northern Apennines. Within this area, we suggest that seismic hazard is higher in the zones located around the outer sector of the Romagna-Marche-Umbria units (RMU), since that wedge is undergoing an accelerated relative motion with respect to the inner Apennine belt. This hypothesis may also account for the pattern of background seismicity in the Northern Apennines. This last activity might indicate that the Upper Tiber Valley fault system is the most resisted boundary sector of the RMU mobile wedge, implying an higher probability of major earthquakes.

Highlights

The present knowledge about the large scale geodynamics and tectonic setting in the central Mediterranean area [4]-[11] suggests that the Adriatic plate (Adria hereafter), stressed by the convergence of the confining plates (Africa, Eurasia and Anatolian-Aegean system), tends to move roughly northward (Figure 1)
We argued that the short term implications of the proposed tectonic setting may influence the spatio-temporal distribution of the minor seismicity recently occurred in the Northern Apennines
The spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes (M ≥ 5.5) in the periAdriatic zones may closely be connected with the progressive displacement of the Adria plate towards Europe [2] [3]

Summary

Introduction

The present knowledge about the large scale geodynamics and tectonic setting in the central Mediterranean area [4]-[11] suggests that the Adriatic plate (Adria hereafter), stressed by the convergence of the confining plates (Africa, Eurasia and Anatolian-Aegean system), tends to move roughly northward (Figure 1). The relative displacement of this plate with respect to the surrounding regions is accommodated by major decoupling earthquakes along the periAdriatic orogenic belts (Hellenides, Dinarides, Eastern Southern Alps and Apennines). Each strong shock at a periAdriatic boundary zone triggers a perturbation of the strain field, known as postseismic relaxation [16]-[21], that propagating through the plate may significantly increase the probability of shocks at the other boundary sectors of Adria. Once most periAdriatic fault zones have been activated by major decoupling earthquakes, one could expect that the whole Adria plate has accomplished a further step in its northward migration [2] [3]. The set of major periAdriatic shocks that contributed to one of these steps is recalled as seismic sequence.

Objectives

Discussion

Conclusion