Present evolution and future predictions for the deltaic coastal zone between the Sulina and Sf. Gheorghe Danube river mouths (Romania)

Abstract

Human activity has modified the natural evolution of coastal areas to a considerable extent and has arguably been the most important factor controlling the evolution of the coastal zone in recent decades. These interventions have drastically changed the natural evolution trends of the coastal strip between Sulina and Sf. Gheorghe Danube mouths, where the highest erosion and substantial accumulation rates can be observed compared to the entire Romanian Black Sea coast. In addition, various scenarios of the rate of sea-level rise suggest a general coastline retreat ranging from 30 to 150 m by 2030 for the coastal strip between Sulina and Sf. Gheorghe. The implications for the study area were examined using two possible scenarios: the first in which there is no intervention to protect against coastal erosion, and the second in which new human interventions are taken into account. The predicted coastal evolution under the first scenario is essentially a projection of present-day coastline evolution influenced by projected climate change, whilst for the second scenario the results are more complex and difficult to assess at present due to a lack of information concerning future coastal management plans.