Abstract
Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate ‘temperature seasonality.’ Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus.
Highlights
Since the introduction of domestic livestock into the New World, vampire bat-transmitted rabies has been the primary disease problem in livestock [1], and Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat, has served as a major constraint to the success of the cattle industry [2], [3]
Regions of suitability in the present day models, Mexico, Central America, Venezuela, Guyana, western Ecuador and Peru, and Bolivia, had high suitability when the model was projected to future climates for 2030, 2050, and 2080 (Fig. 2)
The Caribbean region and Florida had suitable habitat for D. rotundus under future climates but these regions were not included in the present day model because there are no museum records from these areas
Summary
Since the introduction of domestic livestock into the New World, vampire bat-transmitted rabies has been the primary disease problem in livestock [1], and Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat, has served as a major constraint to the success of the cattle industry [2], [3]. In areas with high bat density, a single individual has received 12 bites in one night and had up to four bats feeding at a time [6]. Thompson et al [11] found cattle from typical tropical regions that were in poor condition had a significant increase in milk production when they were injected with an anticoagulant and mitigated the negative effects of D. rotundus. They concluded that cattle in these areas experience other sources of stress such as extreme climate, inadequate diet, and other parasites, protection from D. rotundus is critical. There is still not a consensus on the effects of blood loss on cattle
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