Present and future sea level rise at the intersection of race and poverty in the Carolinas: A geospatial analysis

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) has and will continue to impact coastal communities in the coming decades. Despite the widespread availability of data on SLR projections, little is known about the differential impact of SLR on minority or economically disadvantaged populations. In this study, we aim to identify the geographic areas in which low-income and communities of color along the North and South Carolina coastline in the United States will experience the most severe effects of SLR. Geospatial mapping was performed to estimate the total area impacted by 1) SLR, 2) tidal inundation, and 3) low-lying areas separately for three scenarios (0-, 2-, and 4-feet). Findings project that over 2.2 million people and at least 370,000 Black or economically disadvantaged individuals will be impacted by SLR by 2100. Results showed that the most economically deprived and racially segregated communities are already experiencing the effects of SLR, including more frequent tidal inundation and low-lying flooding. Inland flooding is seven times more likely to occur in low-income Black communities compared to high-income white communities. Findings highlight the urgent need for additional resources and adaptive measures that target low-income, black communities who will continue to be disproportionately impacted by SLR in coastal Carolina.