Abstract
Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km2 will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.
Highlights
Public health is very likely to be adversely impacted by climate change [1]
Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project –Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble, we discuss uncertainties in climate model projections, focusing on robustness—a measure that examines the multi-model ensemble agreement—using two fundamental climatic factors affecting the mosquito habitat, i.e. the near-surface temperature and precipitation in the part of the globe that is relevant for Ae. albopictus
Aedes albopictus is a public health threat owing to its environmental adjustability and its capability to transmit the pathogens that cause dengue fever, chikungunya infection, West Nile fever and potentially other diseases
Summary
Public health is very likely to be adversely impacted by climate change [1]. Future climate projections, even under optimistic emission scenarios, indicate a substantial rise in near-surface temperatures and changes in the hydrological cycle. For the first time, fairly high resolution globally consistent habitat suitability maps of the Asian tiger mosquito for present and projected future climate conditions These maps were created using a vector distribution model driven by seven meteorological criteria following a (fuzzylogic) multi-criteria decision analysis method. The fuzzy-logic based multi-criteria decision model for projecting the vector geographical dispersal is illustrated by the set of sigmoidal function plots provided in figure 1 By applying these constraints to the global climate data derived from our EMAC simulation, we estimate the geographical areas that could potentially sustain the establishment/ colonization of mosquitoes (assuming they are introduced) during the reference period (years 2000–2009), and further help us identify the regions that can support the presence of the mosquito in the projected future period (years 2045–2054) under the SRES-A2 emissions scenario. Using (gridded) population data [60,61], centred at the years 2005 and 2050 for the two simulation periods
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