Present and future distribution of endangered and economically important Ocotea species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: Implications for conservation and restoration

Abstract

Habitat destruction and climate change are major threats to global biodiversity. Economically important species are even more susceptible to these drivers, as their already vulnerable populations experience additional stress. This is exemplified by species such as Ocotea catharinensis, O. odorifera, and O. porosa, which have been extensively exploited and are mainly found in the highly degraded Atlantic Forest hotspot. In this context, this study aimed to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution of these species and identify priority areas to support conservation and restoration measures. The MaxEnt algorithm was employed to estimate the current and future distribution of the three species under two time periods (2040 and 2080) and climate change scenarios (SSP 245 and SSP 585). The obtained information was then used to assess land use change within the species distribution range, focusing on suitable regions within legally protected areas and on lands that need to be restored to comply with the Brazilian forest code. The analysis revealed that habitat loss, particularly due to forest conversion for forestry use, remains a significant threat to these species. Furthermore, climate change is projected to cause reductions in suitable habitats for all species. The predicted reduction ranges from 32% to 67% for O. catharinensis, 39–86% for O. odorifera, and 26–69% for O. porosa, depending on the year and climate change scenario. These results indicate a potential worsening of their conservation status in the coming years. A concerning mismatch was observed between the conservation target and legally protected suitable areas in future scenarios, particularly affecting O. catharinensis and O. porosa. Additionally, a significant portion of the suitable areas falls within lands that require restoration. Our findings highlight climate change as an additional risk factor for the conservation of these already endangered species. The results provided by this study can support the development of ex situ and in situ conservation strategies aiming at safeguarding these ecologically and economically valuable species.