Preseismic Changes of Water Temperature in the Yushu Well, Western China

Abstract

We observed abnormal changes of the water temperature in Yushu (YSWT) well, China, most of which were followed by earthquakes. This study statistically analyzes the correlation between the magnitude and duration of the anomalies in YSWT and earthquakes in the Tibetan block and its margins. The effectiveness of using observed YSWT data to predict earthquakes was quantitatively examined by the Molchan error diagram method. The results show that (1) the YSWT underwent several abnormal changes marked by “V”-shaped patterns, which might be related to several earthquakes that occurred in the Tibetan block and its margins. The extent and duration of the abnormal changes in the YSWT were linearly related to the magnitude of the earthquake; i.e., the higher the magnitude, the greater the change in the YSWT, and the shorter the duration. (2) Abnormal changes in the YSWT are somewhat predictive of earthquakes with magnitudes ≥5.5 (≥M5.5) within 800 km of the Yushu well and ≥M6.5 earthquakes in the Tibetan block and its margins. The prediction has a probability gain of approximately 2, and the most likely time period for an earthquake to occur is within approximately 3 months after the occurrence of an YSWT anomaly. Most of the anomalies in YSWT appeared before earthquakes in the thrust of block margins. Notably the larger strains from the earthquake did not produce any response. We speculate that the preseismic responses reflect the regional tectonics, such as the motion of the Indian plate, straining sub-blocks of the Tibetan block.