Prescriptive conflict prevention analysis: An application to the 2021 update of the Austrian flood risk management plan

Abstract

Flood events have become more frequent in Europe, and the adaptation to the increasing flood risks is needed. The Flood Directive set up a series of measures to increase European resilience, establishing Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) at the level of the river basin district as one relevant action. In order to efficiently fulfil this objective, the involvement of stakeholders as well as the analysis of their roles, responsibilities, and demands has been considered to be crucial to develop FRMPs. As a result, the hypothesis tested in this paper is that a consensus solution for the 2021 update Austrian Flood Risk Management Plan is feasible. To demonstrate this, both in-depth interviews and questionnaires to key Austrian stakeholders are implemented. The information collected in both participatory techniques are then used to run a conflict prevention analysis. The results show that (a) improving the coordination among regions and including better land-use planning approaches are preferable to a hypothetical business as usual scenario; and (b) a consensus solution for the 2021 update Austrian FRMP might be achievable on the basis of both a deep discussion on the state-of-the art and green infrastructure development.