Preschool Prediction of Low Achievement in Basic School Skills

Abstract

The purpose of the present study was to determine the extent to which children identified on preschool readiness tests as high for development of learning difficulties do, in fact, demonstrate low achievement in basic school skills by the time they have completed several years of elementary school. A review by Keogh and Becker (1973) cited nine studies that attempted to locate children with potential learning problems in kindergarten or earlier. However, only four of these studies reported the percentage of correct predictions. A recent review of research published through 1973 (Schaer & Crump 1976) points out the lack of consensus regarding the feasibility of early identification of learning disabilities. Studies conducted from 1973 to the present provide no more reason to be confident about the validity of early identification of learning problems. False-positive rates are often high, and rates of correct prediction differ for failing as well as successful students (Dimitrovsky & Almy 1975, Eaves, Kendall, & Crichton 1974, Feshbach, Adelman, & Fuller 1974). If significant correlations are found between scores on a preschool instrument and later school achievement, it has generally been assumed that the preschool instrument has been established as a valid means of identifying children at risk for developing future learning problems. However, educators who are currently classifying children as at risk or not at risk based on the child's performance on such preschool measures may be making unwarranted assumptions regarding the validity of predictions for individual children. SUBJECTS AND MEASURES